MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0269
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
450 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN IA & NORTHEAST MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 250850Z - 251150Z
 
SUMMARY...A LONG-LIVED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS SHOWING LESS
BACKBUILDING WITH TIME.  OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SPANNING SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHEAST MO. 
BACKBUILDING ALONG ITS NORTHWEST EDGE HAS BEGUN TO FADE.  HIGH
HOURLY RAIN RATES HAVE BEGUN TO SHRINK IN SCALE, WHILE LOCALLY
REACHING 2.5" PER RADAR ESTIMATES.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA REMAINS
25-50 KTS, EXCEEDING THE 850-400 HPA MEAN WIND.  MLCAPES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE AS CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING ERODE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 00Z-07Z
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE, BELIEVE THE COMPLEX HAS ANOTHER FEW HOURS TO
REMAIN PROBLEMATIC ACROSS THE REGION.  MUCH OF THE REMAINING
INSTABILITY SHOULD ERODE DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS.  THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IS SLOWING DOWN ITS SOUTHERN
PROPAGATION AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RACES AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY
TOWARDS ST. LOUIS MO.  THE MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNAL
FOR 2-3" OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THROUGH 12Z, FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER SATURATED SOILS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   41629326 40699180 39469033 38819084 38719230 
            39349344 40069403 41199460