MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0273
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1152 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 260352Z - 260852Z
 
SUMMARY...A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST MO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
CONTINUING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT CONVECTIVE EPISODE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MO, A NEW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS, SOUTHEAST NE, AND NORTHWEST MO AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
IN THE WESTERLIES AND ELEVATED OVER A THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL KS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75-2" LIE ACROSS
THE REGION PER GPS INFORMATION.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA OF 25+ KTS IS
SEEN IN VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KS
(EXCEEDING THE MEAN 850-400 HPA WIND), ADVECTING IN 2000-3000 J/KG
MLCAPE PER THE MOST RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS.  CELLS ARE MOVING
NORTH OF DUE EAST AT 20-25 KTS PER RADAR ESTIMATES.  

FORWARD PROPAGATION CONVECTIVE VECTORS COMBINED WITH THE 1000-500
HPA THICKNESS PATTERN SUPPORT A MORE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION AT CLOSER TO 25 KTS AS THE STORMS GET
BETTER ORGANIZED.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS 40
KTS WITH TIME.  CELL TRAINING ACROSS SATURATED SOILS IS THE MAIN
CONCERN.  THE MORE RELIABLE MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE INDICATES LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 2-4" ACROSS THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUPPORTS HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5",
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING THE THREE HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.  THIS
AREA HAS RECEIVED 6-14" OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS PER SOUTHERN REGION
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES, WITH A SIGNIFICANT PERCENTAGE OF IT
OCCURRING THIS TIME YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MO.  THE 18Z SSEO
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES INDICATE THAT THIS CONVECTIVE BURST IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST UNTIL 12-14Z.  FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED
LIKELY OVER SATURATED SOILS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   40569554 40569433 40299265 39299238 38639312 
            38669558 38829700 39079847 39979725 40299668