MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0274
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
343 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN MO & EASTERN KS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 260741Z - 261241Z
SUMMARY...A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER
SEVERAL HOURS. WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5", FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS HAS
BEEN MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ROUGHLY 25 KTS OVERNIGHT, MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 2", PER GPS INFORMATION, LIE NEAR THE COMPLEX. VAD
WIND PROFILES SHOW 25-35 KTS OF INFLOW AT 850 HPA (HIGHER THAN THE
MEAN 850-400 HPA WIND) FEEDING INTO THE CLUSTER, LURING IN MIXED
LAYER CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG FROM SOUTHEAST KS.
ITS SATELLITE IMPRESSION IMPLIES THAT IT SHOULD PERSIST ANOTHER
FOUR HOURS. RAP MASS FIELDS ALONG WITH 00Z NMMB RADAR
REFLECTIVITY BEAR THIS OUT AS WELL, SHOWING THE SYSTEM BECOMING
INCREASINGLY INSTABILITY-STARVED BY 12Z AND TAKING ON THE
APPEARANCE OF A FORWARD PROPAGATING SQUALL LINE BETWEEN 12Z-13Z,
WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. UNTIL THEN, HOURLY
RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5" REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE
SHOWS LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 3-5" RANGE THROUGH 13Z, WHICH COULD
FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE 00Z NMMB AND THE 00Z SPCWRF
HAVE BEEN PERFORMING BEST WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FAR. SINCE THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE DECREASING WITH TIME DUE TO THE
CHANGE IN CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT OVER LESS
SATURATED SOILS, CHOSE THE POSSIBLE CATEGORY.
ROTH
ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TOP...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...
LAT...LON 39749280 39569230 38599162 37439163 36729228
36659365 37259461 38129530 38679543 39199442
39709368
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Last Updated: 343 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015