MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0284
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
144 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MO, NORTHEAST KS, SOUTHEAST NE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 010543Z - 011143Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  FLASH FLOODING
IS LIKELY WITHIN A SATURATED REGION.

DISCUSSION...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES IN THE DAKOTAS HAVE ALLOWED FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PULSING AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NE, SOUTHWEST IA, AND NORTHERN MO.  NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING NEAR KANSAS CITY MO, WHILE
OLDER AND MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FADING. 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.8-2" INHABIT THE REGION PER GFS
INFORMATION.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS KS, ON
THE ORDER OF 25-35 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST PER
VAD WIND PROFILES, STRONGER AND AT A NEAR RIGHT ANGLE TO THE MEAN
850-400 HPA WIND.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO MO, MUCAPES OF 1000-3000 J/KG NEAR A
MID-LEVEL CAP WILL BEGIN TO BE TAPPED BY INCREASINGLY BROAD AND
STRONG 850 HPA INFLOW, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION.  FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE VECTORS (DUE TO THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR) ALONG WITH THE 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS PATTERN
INDICATE ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS --
CELL TRAINING IS THE MAIN FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  OUTSIDE THE 00Z
REGIONAL CANADIAN MODEL, THE MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOCATION AND AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED, WITH A ROBUST
SIGNAL FOR LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 3-7" RANGE.  THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WOULD ALLOW FOR HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5", WHICH IN
THIS REGION WOULD QUICKLY LEAD TO ISSUES.  PER SOUTHERN REGION
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES, 30 DAY RAIN TOTALS IN THIS REGION HAVE
BEEN 6-12", WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 18" NORTHEAST OF KANSAS
CITY.  FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED LIKELY OVER SATURATED SOILS
AND WITHIN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS WITHIN THIS REGION.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   40619580 40509464 40039357 39759318 38259168 
            37439136 36599174 36619318 37419448 38429552 
            39899668 40429671