MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0285
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
646 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-SOUTHWESTERN MO AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 012245Z - 020445Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND ALONG A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TO LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MO BACK
INTO A LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN KS.  LATEST MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG THE FRONT WITH
HIGHER VALUES TO THE SOUTHWEST.  PWS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 1.7-1.8
INCHES. THE LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MO...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

THE LATEST RAP SHOWS A 20-30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING
MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KS AND SOUTHWESTERN MO INTO THE
BOUNDARY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH PWS INCREASING TO AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN MO.  TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS.  MEANWHILE THE
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING ALONG
THE AXIS OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 
THE FORECAST FOR PERSISTENT MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO A REGION
OF SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOURAGE
BACKBUILDING CONVECTION.  MOST OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE CENTER THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM WEST-CENTRAL TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN
MO...HOWEVER THE 21Z HRRR HAS EXTENDED HEAVY AMOUNTS AS FAR
SOUTHWEST AS SOUTHEASTERN KS.

REFLECTING THE HEAVY RAINS THAT HAVE RECENTLY OCCURRED AND THE
RESULTING SATURATED SOILS...ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE LESS THAN A QUARTER-INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS IS LIKELY TO
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   39059388 39019262 38609147 37819066 37599076 
            37869153 37869263 37499311 37249363 37079462 
            37499491 38129453 38779452