MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0286
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME EASTERN KS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MO...SOUTHWEST IL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 020355Z - 020955Z
 
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
AS ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND TEND TO
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA.

DISCUSSION...VERY COLD TOPPED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE IN
A WEST TO EAST FASHION FROM FAR EASTERN KS INTO CENTRAL MO AND
NEAR THE BORDER WITH IL. THE CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
APPROACH OF A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KS AND
WITH A SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS FOSTERING DEEPER LAYER ASCENT AS IS
SUGGESTED BY THE CONVECTIVE WEDGE SIGNATURE IN IR/WV SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NUMEROUS OVERSHOOTING TOPS HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AND THE EXPERIMENTAL GLD-LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT
SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE IN STRIKE ACTIVITY WHICH IS SUGGESTIVE OF
STRONGER FORCING/ASCENT THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS IS PRODUCING
ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE PWATS ARE NEAR
2 INCHES AS PER GOES-SOUNDER DATA. OBSERVED RAINFALL RATES OF OVER
3 INCHES/HR HAVE BEEN NOTED...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
ORGANIZED.

DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY POOLED ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EAST
OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION
FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LARGER
SCALE DYNAMICS IN PLACE. THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTS THE WEST/EAST
ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION GRADUALLY SETTLING SOUTHWARD PAST
06Z...BUT WITH LOCALIZED TENDENCIES FOR TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY VERY HIGH...LOCALLY
EXCEEDING 5 INCHES GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND SUCH HIGH RAINFALL
RATES. SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS CONVECTION.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...MEG...PAH...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   38709429 38379303 38579157 38419045 38008926 
            37328885 36708945 36539063 36629170 36819321 
            37179440 37659512 38059548 38579528