MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0292
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AL...CENTRAL AND EASTERN TN...NORTHERN
GA...WESTERN NC 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 030645Z - 031145Z
 
SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
FALLING ON SATURATED GROUND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FOSTER AT
LEAST LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY EASTERN TN AND THESE RAINS CONTINUE TO FALL ON AREAS
THAT HAVE SEEN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO.
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MS...NORTHERN AL AND NORTHERN GA AS WELL. THE CONVECTION IS BEING
AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY THIS MORNING AND IS INTERACTING WITH A POOL OF VERY MOIST
AND AT LEAST MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE TN VALLEY. PWATS ARE
RUNNING CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND THIS HAS BEEN PROMOTING VERY INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES. A FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS HAS BEEN NOTED AS WELL
WITH THE CONVECTION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OVER EASTERN TN
AND NORTHWEST GA...AND THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL RATES
FURTHER.

THE 05Z HRRR SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND IMPACTING
AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN EXCESSIVE RAINS. THIS INCLUDES SOME
OF THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
INVOLVING EASTERN TN...FAR NORTHERN GA AND WESTERN NC. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LOCALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH SUNRISE IS
POSSIBLE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS AT THIS POINT IS LIKELY TO
FAVOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   36468461 36438391 36158339 35218325 34628355 
            34278456 34118573 34178722 34548785 35088750 
            35578625 36268527