MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0293
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
539 AM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MS...NORTHERN AL...NORTHERN GA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 030935Z - 031500Z
 
SUMMARY...TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW COLD-TOPPED
CONVECTION ORIENTED W/E ACROSS NORTHERN MS AND NORTHERN AL AT THIS
TIME AND THERE ARE CONCERNS THAT THIS SET-UP WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS GOING PASSED SUNRISE. THE CONVECTION IS BEING
AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY WHICH IS INTERACTING WITH A POOL OF
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND AT LEAST A MODEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY.

VAD WIND PROFILER DATA SHOWS A RATHER UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW PATTERN
IN THE 925MB TO 500MB LAYER...AND THIS IS ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MS AND NORTHERN AL
TO HAVE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR TRAINING. THE PWATS ACROSS THE REGION
AS PER GOES-SOUNDER DATA ARE NEAR 2 INCHES WHICH IS FAVORING
EXTREMELY HIGH RAINFALL RATES. THE 00Z ARW AND 00Z NMMB ALONG WITH
THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF W/E ORIENTED CONVECTIVE
BANDS IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE MID TO LATE-MORNING
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE ARW AND NMMB ARE LIKELY A TAD TOO FAR NORTH
WITH THEIR AXIS...AND ALSO UNDERDOING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AL AND NORTHERN GA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING. GIVEN EARLIER HEAVY RAINS...SOIL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
QUITE MOIST IF NOT ALREADY SATURATED...AND THEREFORE THE RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JAN...MEG...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   34998436 34898341 34408289 33948353 33738479 
            33698694 33788923 34029050 34439065 34839013 
            34988833 34978614