MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0297
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
222 PM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 031821Z - 040000Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF RAINFALL RATES OF
1-2 IN/HR MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. THE TIME FRAME APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED IN THE 20-00Z RANGE WITH UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION AFTER
00Z.

DISCUSSION...AS REFERENCED IN RECENT SPENES MESSAGE SENT AT
1720Z...OVERLAPPING PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT MPD AREA...12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM ABQ AND EPZ SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DRY
AIR THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE. MEAN WIND FLOW WAS ALSO GENERALLY
ABOUT 10 KTS OR LESS WHICH SHOULD ENSURE SLOW MOVING STORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. 

TWO MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE IDENTIFIED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...ONE ACROSS S-CNTRL COLORADO AND ANOTHER OVER SERN NEW
MEXICO. A COMBINATION OF THESE TWO DISTURBANCES AND OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH GROWING INSTABILITY AS
SEEN ON GOES SOUNDER CAPE AND SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE WHICH SHOWED
BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AT 18Z WITH MINIMIZING CIN TO ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SLOW
STORM MOTIONS AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF FFG VALUES SHOWING 1-2 IN/HR ACROSS
MUCH OF NEW MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF THE
12Z NMM/ARW/SPC WRF/NAM_CONEST AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE THREAT AREA EXCEEDING FFG.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE OF AN ORGANIZED
CLUSTER DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED AND MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS UPDATED AS NEEDED IF THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXTENDS BEYOND 00Z.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36930512 36900427 36870340 36390319 35560313 
            34340335 33320400 31630463 31410575 31710674 
            32010782 32190882 33190885 33720810 34820740 
            35790712 36420698 36620681 36900600