MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0298
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
505 PM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...BOOTHEEL OF
MISSOURI 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 032105Z - 040100Z
 
SUMMARY...SHORT TERM LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH HIGHLY
EFFICIENT CELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND MERGERS.

DISCUSSION...IR/VIS/RADAR LOOPS SHOW AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEGUN TO CONVECTIVE WITH A BIT MORE VIGOR DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
WEAK OUTFLOW FROM ACTIVITY EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER TENNESSEE. 
CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH 2000-2500
J/KG...THIS IS SKINNY CAPE WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS FOR EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION...WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH TPWS IN THE 1.75"
RANGE...EXPECT RATES IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR  ADDITIONALLY CELL MOTIONS
ARE VERY SLOW AND SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT PARTICULARLY UPSTREAM NEAR
THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI.  GIVEN THE SLACKENED FLOW AND
INCONSISTENCIES TO RESOLVE WEAK BOUNDARIES...HI-RES CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO HANDLE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
RAINFALL PATTERN...YET THE SSEO MEAN DOES A DECENT JOB TO
HIGHLIGHT 1-2" TOTALS WITH ORIENTATION OF SOME LINEAR FEATURES
ACROSS WESTERN KY AND POCKETS LIKELY WITH ACCIDENTAL MERGERS/SHORT
TERM HANG UPS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KY.  LOWER FFG VALUES
FURTHER EAST OF 1" OR LESS WOULD BE EASILY ECLIPSED BY THESE
ACCIDENTAL MERGERS OR POCKETS... WHILE THE MORE PROLONGED THREAT
OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY HAS A SIMILAR MAGNITUDE OF FLASH FLOODING
THREAT GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ABILITY TO HANDLE HIGHER TOTALS.
EITHER WAY THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH 01Z WITH REDUCING INSTABILITIES DUE TO NIGHTFALL.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   38478412 37928316 36818423 36698613 36598969 
            36769018 37199024 37378964 37448771 38058601