MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0303
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 PM EDT SAT JUL 04 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW
MEXICO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 041837Z - 050037Z
 
SUMMARY...SCATTERED SLOW MOVING CELLS WITHIN AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...VIS/IR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW INCREASING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE MOGOLLON INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO MTNS OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA
INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO. EARLY MORNING SOLAR INSULATION HAS LEAD
TO INCREASED SBCAPES INTO THE 2000 J/KG RANGE WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WITH 1.25" TOTAL PWATS WITH SURFACE TDS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S... TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE
SUPPORT WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION UP TO 1.5"/HR RATES.  A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL AZ MOVING NORTHWEST...THIS
IS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...BUT AS IT IS
EJECTING THE WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL SLACKEN MORE WITH CELLS
MOTIONS NEARLY STATIONARY ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF
RAINFALL IN THE 1-2" RANGE.  SOME INCREASED RUNOFF THREAT AND
ISOLATED FLASHY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICUARLY GIVEN
YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL ACROSS THE SAME REGION.  INFLOW FROM THE
SOUTH UP THE TERRAIN MAY BE INCREASED WITH SOME PRESSURE FALLS AND
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASED FLUX AND SOME
MOISTURE SUPPORT FOR A BIT LONGER DURATION/HANG UPS BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH FOR CELLS TO EXPAND NORTH AND WEST UP THE
MOGOLLON RIM...IN THE NEXT 3-4HOURS...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS OF
ISOLATED SLOW MOVING CONVECTION.  

THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE HI-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS PARTICULARLY THE 12Z ARW AND ITS
PARALLEL RUN...THE NSSL WRF AND NAM-CONEST.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36261254 35481043 35160850 34550759 33720751 
            33080789 32690840 32490908 32490948 32591025 
            33411050 34151129 35641306