MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0306
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND THE SRN/CNTRL
APPALACHIANS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 051533Z - 052133Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SRN TO CNTRL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION IDENTIFIED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE CNTRL KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER AT 15Z WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT ENEWD THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY EAST OF THIS LOW ACROSS ERN TENNESSEE INTO FAR WRN
VIRGINIA AND ERN KENTUCKY HAVE ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
RISE IN THE MID-70S AS OF 15Z. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM RNK AND
BNA SUGGEST NEARLY SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH NO CIN
AND SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WHILE MOISTURE IS ONLY WEAKLY
ANOMALOUS FOR EARLY JULY...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AREA WIDE IS ONLY
1-2 IN/HR.

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE THREAT AREA
WHERE INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BY 18Z. WHILE CELLS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY
ORGANIZED GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LIMITED 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR...MOISTURE APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER...CLOUD COVER IS
LIKELY TO REDUCE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY BUT FFG IS LOWEST NEAR THE
LOW CENTER AND ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS GIVEN SATURATED SOILS. A CONSENSUS OF THE MOST RECENT
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SETUP THROUGH 21Z WITH STORM
TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39128028 38797980 37608035 36928110 36228249 
            36058296 35868425 35858489 36018554 36198609 
            36828624 37548530 37998392 38388273 38598157