MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0316
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
743 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...EXTREME
EASTERN NEW MEXICO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 062341Z - 070543Z
 
SUMMARY...CONTINUED THREAT OF VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING
CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE AND RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING SURFACE
WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAP ROCK OF
TEXAS...WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF WARM/COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT STRUCTURES
DELINEATED BY ACTIVE STRONG CORES. AT THIS TIME...CELL MOTIONS ARE
SLOW AND MAINLY INDUCED BY OUTFLOW AND MERGERS AS THERE IS STILL
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS...STILL MERGERS AND SLOW MOTIONS
ARE LEADING TO EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE CORES WITH TOPS COLDER THAN
-80C... AND PRODUCING RATES IN EXCESS OF 2-2.5"/HR LEADING TO
QUICK LOCAL FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL COMPLICATIONS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAP ROCK AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN
CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY MOVING NORTH TO INTERSECT THE COLD
FRONT...LIKELY TO LEAD TO EVEN STRONGER UPDRAFTS IN THE NEAR TERM.
 SHORT TERM RAP FORECAST SHOWS INCREASING CONFLUENT SOUTHERLY
INFLOW FROM THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY
EAST OF THE BIG BEND...INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COMPLEX
INCREASING THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND ALONG WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION MOISTENING THE PROFILES...WITH TOTAL PWATS INCREASING
FROM 1.6" TO 2.0 AND HIGHER BY 03Z.

AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT...CELL MOTIONS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE AND SHIFT MORE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE UNTAPPED
INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE INSTABILITIES REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH CAPES
REMAINING IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG AND WITH HIGHER MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY SHOULD INCREASE RATES POTENTIALLY 3"/HR.  THOUGH
FORWARD PROGRESS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER...THESE EXTREME RATES
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAXIMA OF HIGHEST TOTALS COULD BE NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF THE TRIPLE POINT FROM NORTH OF PVW TOWARD
CDS...WHERE CELLS COULD BE HUNG UP OR SLOWER TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING 700MB
LOW.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36319889 35329774 33649900 32660038 32570232 
            33370262 34010234 34350234 34290350 34690378 
            35170327 35350252 35910009