MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0320
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
711 AM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN OK/NORTHWESTERN AR/SOUTHERN MO... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 071110Z - 071540Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HEFTY HOURLY RATES. WHILE FFG
VALUES ARE RATHER HIGH...EXPECT A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A WEAK MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE NOTED IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY HAS SPAWNED A BROAD AXIS OF CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE 11Z OBSERVED FRONTAL ZONE. THE MESONET SUGGESTS 3-HOUR AMOUNTS
IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MO. RECENT RADAR
SCANS SHOWED ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST...GENERALLY
STRADDLING THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE LATEST VAD-WIND PROFILER DATA
INDICATED THIS RENEWED CONVECTION WAS FOCUSING ALONG THE NOSE OF
THE LLJ WITH PWATS IN THE 2 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE. OF CONCERN IS THE
FACT RECENT RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN THE
SURFACE TO 500-MB LAYER WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE PROFILER WIND
DATA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BE IGNITED BY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND ADJACENT OUTFLOWS. WHILE
THE BEST INSTABILITY RESIDES FARTHER TO THE SOUTH IN THE
WARM/MOIST SECTOR...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH BUOYANCY IN PLACE
TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION A FEW MORE HOURS OR SO.

MANY OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE QUITE ROBUST WITH THE
6-HOUR TOTALS BETWEEN 09Z-15Z. REGARDLESS OF FORECAST
AMOUNTS...THEY AGREE ON AN ORIENTATION OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM
SOUTHERN MO BACK TOWARD THE AR/MO/OK BORDER REGION. EXPECT
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   38268970 37658907 37078962 36609092 35679328 
            34999476 35869584 37029466 37649282 37999066