MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0322...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1146 AM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015
 
CORRECTED FOR TYPOS IN THE DISCUSSION SECTION

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX/SOUTHEASTERN OK/SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN
AR/SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 071546Z - 072046Z
 
SUMMARY...DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ALONG A WAVY FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. EXPECT THE STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND INCREASINGLY SATURATED SOIL
CONDITIONS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE AXIS
OF STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN IL/MO BACK INTO
EASTERN OK/NORTHWESTERN AR. MEANWHILE...FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL TX. IT APPEARS RECENT
RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THESE AREAS ADJOINING ALONG A WAVY
FRONTAL ZONE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY
OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 1 TO 2 INCH HOURLY RATES
WHILE 6 HOUR AMOUNTS HAVE REACHED THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE. GIVEN THE
2 TO 2.25 INCH PWATS EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SEEN IN MANY OF THE 12Z RAOBS...EXPECT
TRAINING/SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
ENCOMPASSED IN THE MPD AREA. THE 15Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
DEPICTS AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPES IN THE 1000
TO 1500 J/KG RANGE WHICH HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD. CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE HIGHER INSTABILITY WHILE THE BETTER FOCUS SHOULD BE
CLOSER TO THE PARENT FRONTAL ZONE.

CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. EXPECT THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH
FLOODING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE PREVIOUS
HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS MORNING. 


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LSX...LUB...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...
SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   38588919 38258741 37228738 36718894 36019118 
            34249469 31219844 31160032 32490063 33719968 
            35159778 36379500 37599361 38029234 38389103