MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0324
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
424 PM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 072023Z - 080023Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER AN AREA OF SATURATED
SOILS.  FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A WAVE ALONG A THERMAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING THROUGH TX
HAS CAUSED A RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL TX.  THE BOUNDARY IS FEEDING ON MLCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG WITH 850 HPA INFLOW IN THE REGION RATHER MODEST, CLOSE TO 20
KTS PER VAD WIND PROFILES.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE CLOSE TO
2" PER GPS INFORMATION.

THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INDICATES LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4" ARE
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA, MAINLY DURING THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS, BEFORE
CONVECTION TRIES TO FORWARD PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES.  THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
LIMITED ORGANIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2". 
THE 12Z ARW APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION THE BEST.  THE 12Z SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF
EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ALSO WANE SIGNIFICANTLY PAST
00Z ACROSS CENTRAL TX.  WHILE CONVECTION MAY NOT ORGANIZE
SIGNIFICANTLY, FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE LOW DUE TO RECENT
RAINS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED
POSSIBLE.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   31940018 31879961 31449946 30669969 30340010 
            30110087 30260228 31140194 31660110