MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0325
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
504 PM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF OK, AR, MO, & THE OH VALLEY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 072103Z - 080303Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND VIGOR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AFTER 00Z ACROSS THE SATURATING AREA.  FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A BROAD AREA OF INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS IN THE PROCESS OF CHANGING CHARACTER. 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A FRONTAL WAVE
IS ROBBING INSTABILITY/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO AREAS FARTHER
NORTH.  WHERE GAPS HAVE APPEARED IN THE LINE, ELEVATED CONVECTION
HAS ATTEMPTED DEVELOP BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND CLOSER TO
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT IN THE WAKE OF AN MCV ACROSS SOUTHERN IN,
SOUTHERN IL, AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MO.  INFLOW REMAINS
STEADFAST IN THE 25-30 KTS RANGE INTO THE THERMAL BOUNDARY. 
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN WANING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OH AHEAD OF THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT.  OTHERWISE, A BROAD AREA OF 1000-2000 J/KG
MLCAPES EXIST FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN KY.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH, IN THE 2-2.5" RANGE PER RAP FORECASTS
AND GPS INFORMATION.

SOME CONTINUED EROSION OF MUCAPES IS FORECAST BY RECENT RAP RUNS
ACROSS AR AND EASTERN TN/KY, WHICH SHOULD CONSTRICT THE EAST-WEST
EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH TIME.  HOWEVER, AN INCREASE
OF 850 HPA INFLOW OF 5-10 KTS IS FORECAST BEYOND 00Z, WHICH COULD
ALLOW CONVECTION BETWEEN SOUTHEAST MO AND WESTERN KY TO REGAIN
SOME VIGOR AFTER SUNSET.  OF SPECIAL CONCERN IS WHETHER OR NOT
CONVECTION MOVES BACK OVER SATURATED SOILS OF SOUTHWEST MO,
SOUTHERNMOST IL, AND WESTERNMOST KY.  THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4" WITHIN THIS REGION, WHICH COULD HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN THE WRONG PLACE.  CONSIDERING THE
UNCERTAINTY, USED THE POSSIBLE CATEGORY FOR THIS MPD.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...OHX...
OUN...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   38638830 38258454 37008389 35888763 35029229 
            34769659 36129649 37729278 
A