MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0327
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
152 AM EDT WED JUL 08 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST AR...SOUTHEASTMO...NORTHWEST
TN...SOUTHWEST KY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 080545Z - 080945Z
 
SUMMARY...A RATHER SLOW-MOVING CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FALLING OVER NEARLY SATURATED SOILS MAY RESULT IN
SOME FLASH FLOODING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS BECOMING FOCUSED ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE LOWER OH
RIVER VALLEY AND IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST OVER AREAS THAT HAVE
SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE VERY WET SOIL CONDITIONS.

CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING A TAD OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
SUGGESTING STRONGER VERTICAL MOTION/FORCING AND THUS HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES. THE MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE FRONT IS ALREADY
VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH GOES-SOUNDER PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES.

THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS A WSW/ENE ORIENTED BANDS OF CONVECTION
IMPACTING NORTHEAST AR...THE BOOTHEEL OF MO...FAR NORTHWEST TN AND
SOUTHWEST KY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT LOCALLY 2 TO 3
INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS. GIVEN THE WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS THIS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING OVERNIGHT.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   37398693 37338612 36808585 36458640 36028882 
            35539042 35679124 36359121 36839021 37238830