MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0328
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
557 AM EDT WED JUL 08 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 080950Z - 081300Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINS WILL BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED AND FOCUSED
OVER ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST MO THIS MORNING. SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHEAST OK
THIS MORNING. STRONGER ASCENT ALOFT GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH
DOES SHOW UP WELL IN THE LATEST GOES-RGB AIRMASS IMAGERY...IS
COINCIDING ALSO WITH THE NOSE OF A 40 TO 45 KT S/SW LOW LEVEL JET
AIMING THROUGH EASTERN OK...FAR WESTERN AR AND INTO EXTREME
SOUTHWEST MO AS PER LATEST VAD WIND PROFILER DATA. THUS RATHER
STRONG LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IS NOTED AND IS THUS ENHANCING
COLUMN ASCENT.

INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ON THE OTHER HAND ARE VERY MODEST AT BEST
FOR THE TIME BEING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MO AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW...AND SO THE ABILITY TO GET HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL
BE DRIVEN BY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND COLUMN
FORCING AS MENTIONED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

HOWEVER...THE 08Z HRRR DOES LIFT THE LOW CENTER INTO SOUTHWEST MO
PAST 12Z...WITH AN UPTICK IN INSTABILITY TRANSPORT VIA THE S/SW
LOW LEVEL JET. THIS COUPLED WITH AFOREMENTIONED FORCING AND HIGH
PWATS OF OVER 2 INCHES SHOULD FOSTER EVEN HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES
BY MID-MORNING. THE 08Z HRRR THROUGH MID-MORNING SUGGESTS AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...BUT WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED TO
MATERIALIZE...THESE AMOUNTS MAY TEND TO BE LOCALLY UNDERDONE. THIS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME FLASH FLOODING AND RUNOFF
PROBLEMS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39089318 38609263 38089258 37429295 36989331 
            36759395 36689448 36949501 36979547 37009575 
            37299585 38029515 38839423