MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0329
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
722 AM EDT WED JUL 08 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TO NORTHERN TX/EASTERN OK... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 081121Z - 081536Z
 
SUMMARY...TRAINING/BACKBUILDING CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN TX AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN OK. WHILE HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES HAVE DECREASED A BIT AS CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO
WARM...THE COMBINATION OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW SUPPORTS THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE 11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SLOW-MOVING
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM JUST WEST OF TULSA OK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE RED RIVER AND BACK TOWARD SAN ANGELO TX. INCREDIBLE
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
TROPICS BRINGING PWATS INTO THE 2.25 TO 2.50 INCH RANGE PER RECENT
GPS DATA. THE SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PAGE FROM SPC INDICATES SUCH
PWATS ARE NEARING/EXCEEDING DAILY RECORDS. THE FOCUS FOR THE
CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS GENERALLY BEEN ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
HAS CONTINUED TO FORCE VIGOROUS LIFT OF AIR PARCELS. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE BOUNDARY IS PERSISTENT UNIDRECTIONAL FLOW IN
THE LOWEST 3-4 KM OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THE VAD-WIND PROFILER OUT OF
KFWS SHOWED 35 TO 40 KNOTS OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHERE
CONTINUAL REGENERATION OF CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE NOSE
OF THE NOCTURNAL LLJ. IN THE PAST SEVERAL SCANS...IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A GENERAL WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS WHICH HAS LED TO
A DECREASE IN THE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES. WHILE THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RATES EARLIER SEEN MAY NOT BE OBSERVED ACROSS A BROAD AREA...THE
GROUNDS ARE QUITE SATURATED FROM THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL TO
SUPPORT THE CONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE MORNING.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE CONVECTION MAINTAINING ITS CURRENT
ORIENTATION THROUGH THE MID-MORNING AS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND MOISTURE CONTENT ARE EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION...THE 10Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TX. 

A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUPPORT A HEAVY SWATH
OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY UP ALONG THE
RED RIVER INTO NORTHEASTERN OK. THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS
WHETHER THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MPD WILL SEE
RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. AS THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR TULSA OK CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST...THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS REGION. 


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...OUN...SGF...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36809592 36599451 35199469 33909590 32289706 
            31269787 30189891 30990038 32169971 33249857 
            34709729