MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0330
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
901 AM EDT WED JUL 08 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN KS/EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
OK/MO/SOUTHERN IL... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 081301Z - 081801Z
 
SUMMARY...A BROAD AXIS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO
AFFECT SECTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE
SURFACE WAVE COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE SUPPORTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED AN EXPANSIVE SWATH
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM FAR
NORTHEASTERN OK/SOUTHEASTERN KS INTO MUCH OF MO. ISENTROPIC LIFT
HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR THE PRECIPITATION OVER MO WITH THE
ACTIVITY GENERALLY CONGREGATING NORTH OF THE ANALYZED BOUNDARY.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE NOT BEEN TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THIS
REGION WITH 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR BEING THE NORM. FARTHER
TO THE WEST WHERE THE SURFACE LOW/MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE
LOCATED...THE CONVECTION IS A BIT MORE INTENSE. MORE
SPECIFICALLY...PER MESONET OBSERVATIONS...3-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS
HAVE BEEN IN THE 1 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
OK/SOUTHEASTERN KS WHICH HAS LOCALLY NEARED SOME OF THE FFG
VALUES. 

MOVING FORWARD...WHILE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AS PWATS
SURGE ABOVE THE 2 INCH MARK...APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE A
PROBLEM. MOST OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS MAINTAIN THE BEST
INSTABILITY PROFILES DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN MO  WHICH IS SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...STRONG ENOUGH DYNAMICS FROM THE SURFACE
LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSE
RAINFALL LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
ISSUES. 


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39609257 39249006 38798815 38048779 37728829 
            37559002 37339195 36549418 36789535 38609503 
            
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