MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0331
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1138 AM EDT WED JUL 08 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TO NORTHERN TX/EASTERN OK... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 081537Z - 082022Z
 
SUMMARY...DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO AFFECT SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO REGENERATE ON THE EASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE SAN ANGELO TX CWA. EXPECT FLASH FLOODING TO BE
MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MPD AREA.

DISCUSSION...A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC/CONVERGENCE ZONE CONTINUES TO
BE A FOCUS FOR PRONOUNCED CONVECTION SINCE THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION HAS BECOME A BIT
MORE DISORGANIZED...ALBEIT IT WITH A FEW FLAREUPS WHERE
OVERSHOOTING TOPS WERE OBSERVED IN THE 1445Z VISIBLE IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...MORE OF THE ACTION HAS TURNED TO THE SOUTHERN POINT OF
THE LINE WHERE TRAINING/BACKBUILDING CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED.
GIVEN HOW MUCH RAIN HAS FALLEN IN RECENT DAYS...FFG VALUES ARE
MINIMIZED WHICH MAKES FLASH FLOODING LIKELY OVER THESE LOCATIONS.
THE KSJT DUAL-POL RADAR SUGGESTS HOURLY RATES IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH
RANGE WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH RAINFALL EFFICIENCY
WITH THESE CELLS. THE LATEST 15Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS POINTS AT
A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY WHERE MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN
DERIVED. EXPECT CONTINUAL CELL TRAINING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN FLANK GIVEN FAVORABLE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES.

THE 14Z HRRR SHOWS THIS EVENT QUITE NICELY FAVORING A BROAD AXIS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OF
COURSE GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT AIR IN PLACE AND TRAINING CONVECTION
OCCURRING...SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXCEED THE ABOVE RANGE. PLEASE VIEW
THE NESDIS/SAB SPENES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36579513 36179416 34759489 33649578 33159623 
            30279901 30550059 31370053 32519936 33769757 
            35969579