MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0335
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
349 AM EDT THU JUL 09 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN OKLAHOMA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 090748Z - 091148Z
 
SUMMARY...STRONG INFLOW AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION WITHIN
SLOW MOVING MCS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...RADAR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A WELL DEFINED
MCS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH CELLS/OVERSHOOTING TOPS MOVING
SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE COMPLEX FOR TRAINING ENVIRONMENT.  VWP SHOWS
850MB 40KT LLJ BEGINNING TO VEER EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE TRACK OF THE CELLS/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO AID STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  ONGOING
ENVIRONMENT AS ALREADY SATURATED PROFILES TO ALLOW FOR HIGHLY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION...AND WITH RAP ANALYSIS TOTAL PWATS
IN THE 1.7" RANGE AND GOOD FLUX... RATES IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR REMAIN
LIKELY.  SINCE ORIENTATION OF THE ISENTROPIC BOUNDARY IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO CELL MOTION VECTORS...CONTINUED TRAINING WILL OCCUR. 
THE 05Z HRRR SUPPORTED BY THE RECENT 06Z HRRR SHOWS A DECENT SIZED
AREA OF 6HR RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF LOCAL FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES WITH SOME POCKETS FORECAST TO 6-7" POSSIBLE.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   36180065 35399901 34489894 34030007 34610181 
            35400247 36160186