MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0336
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
520 AM EDT THU JUL 09 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN MISSOURI...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 090920Z - 091520Z
 
SUMMARY...NARROW BAND OF HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING CELLS
NORTH OF FRONT.  GIVEN LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...RATES IN EXCESS
OF 1.75"/HR AND SOME TRAINING...FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR STL TO NEAR
OKC.  AN MCS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS WEAKENING WHILE
DEVELOPING AN MCV THAT WILL SHIFTS EASTWARD LIFTING THE FRONT
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ORIENTING IT MORE WEST TO EAST. A
30-35 KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET PER VWP NETWORK HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT TO TAP SOME MUCAPE INSTABILITIES OF
500-1000 J/KG TO INITIATE DEEPER CONVECTION AS SEEN PER SATELLITE
IR AND RADAR JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT.  ALOFT...AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE
ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF THE CONVECTIVE
CORES...LIKELY TO MAXIMIZE AROUND 11-12Z PER RAP FORECAST. 
ADDITIONALLY...CLOUD BEARING FLOW ABOVE 6H WILL FLATTEN ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA FOR CELL MOTION VECTORS TO BE COME NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT AS IT BECOMES MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED.  500-1000MB
THICKNESS ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THICKNESS RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BECOMING A COL OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TOWARD SOUTHERN
MISSOURI REDUCING THE PROPAGATION VECTORS TO BE NEAR ZERO AS WELL.
  MOISTURE VALUES POOLED ALONG THIS COL/AXIS ARE ABOUT 1.8-2.0"
FROM WEST TO EAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION IN EXCESS OF 1.5-2"/HR. 

ALL OF THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF TRAINING CELLS ACROSS
NORTHER OKLAHOMA AND ALONG THE SW MISSOURI/NW ARKANSAS BORDER
LIKELY GREATER THAN 2-4" WITH ISOLATED HIGHER SPOTS POSSIBLE.  THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE CORRIDOR LOOKS TO BE FARTHER NORTH THAN AXIS
OF LOWEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...BUT STILL INTERSECT BETWEEN TULSA
AND SPRINGFIELD MO.   THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE MOST
RECENT FEW HRRR RUNS AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR FROM FSL.  

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...LZK...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   37579235 36969177 36189242 35729507 35339705 
            35319835 35609918 35939971 36509975 36739957 
            36999921 36969784 36979501 37169374