MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0337
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1118 AM EDT THU JUL 09 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN TX/CENTRAL TO EASTERN OK/NORTHWESTERN
AR/EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MO... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 091518Z - 092033Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION THIS MORNING BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG
A LINE STRETCHING FROM JUST EAST OF THE OKC METRO AREA
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD WICHITA FALLS. IN THE PRESENCE OF
MOIST/UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...EXPECT A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
ALONG TRAINING LINE SEGMENTS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED CB TOWERS EXTENDING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL OK WITH CG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INCREASING IN
THE PAST HOUR. THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ANALYZED SURFACE BOUNDARY. BASED ON THE
14Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...AMPLE BUOYANCY IS IN PLACE WITHIN THE
WARM/MOIST SECTOR WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPPING EVIDENT FROM THE RED
RIVER NORTHWARD.

THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING WAS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF TRAINING/BACKBUILDING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE TO 450-MB. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE AS HIGH PWAT AIR HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION FOR DAYS NOW. A
PWAT VALUE OF 1.81 INCHES WAS OBSERVED WHICH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH SURROUNDING DATA TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE OKC METRO.
THESE FAVORABLE MOISTURE/WIND PROFILES IN THE PRESENCE OF
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS
LINE SEGMENTS GENERALLY ALIGNING WITH THE MEAN FLOW WHILE SOME
REGENERATION IS OCCURRING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTION.

THERE IS A RATHER UNANIMOUS SIGNAL IN THE HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
THAT DEPICTS A BROAD AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK
UP TOWARD THE OK/MO/AR BORDER REGION. ONE REGION THESE MODELS ARE
NOT CAPTURING IS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THE 14Z HRRR
SHOWS THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN TX WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...DO BELIEVE THIS SECTOR OF THE MPD COULD
PERSIST LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST GIVEN RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...FWD...ICT...OUN...SGF...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   37059452 36249378 35449426 34459600 33839685 
            33089757 32339827 32479949 33609970 35099835 
            35829759 36969605