MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0339
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
304 PM EDT THU JUL 09 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST OK...FAR NORTHWEST AR...SOUTHERN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 091904Z - 092300Z
 
SUMMARY...ON GOING CONVECTION FROM NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHERN MO
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CELL TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING LEADING TO THE CONTINUED RISK
OF FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE 18Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A QUASI STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MO EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHEAST OK. 
CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY WHERE PW VALUES WERE HOLDING BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00
INCHES.  MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE VALUES WERE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE
FRONT AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RIDES OVER THE BOUNDARY. 
18Z SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE ALSO SHOWED AN AXIS OF 1 TO 3 DEG C
DEWPOINT RISES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MO
SUGGESTING THAT ON GOING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
STATE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. 
FFG GUIDANCE IN THE AREA WAS RUNNING ABOUT 1.5 TO 2 INCHES PER 3
HOURS IN THIS AREA...AND SOME CELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF MEETING
AND EXCEEDING THESE RATES.  

TO THE WEST OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  AM EXPECTING AT
LEAST SOME LOWERING OF FFG AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING.
 

THE 17Z HRRR AND 12Z ARW HAVE BEEN DOING RATHER WELL IN PLACEMENT
OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE RAFL AMOUNTS FROM THE ARW LOOKING
MARGINALLY BETTER THAN THE HRRR.  THE GLOBAL MODELS TENDED TO BE
TOO FAR NORTH WITH THEIR PCPN AXIS. 

BANN

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LSX...LZK...OUN...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   37729106 37098967 36579246 35779477 35989539 
            35629704 36209730 36319719 37049567 37719330