MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0340
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
754 PM EDT THU JUL 09 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MO...FAR NORTHERN AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 092353Z - 100300Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MO WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO AND FAR NORTHERN AR THROUGH 03Z.  

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MO EXTENDING BACK INTO
NORTHERN AR AND EXTREME EASTERN OK AS OF 2345Z WERE BEING AIDED BY
THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST.  THERE WERE SFC
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER STORMS WHICH HAVE HELPED TO
PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BUT HAVE NOT
OTHERWISE IMPACTED THE ABILITY OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE LATE AFTERNOON RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE NOT PRODUCED
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  SINCE THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT AS SHOWN BY PW VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES...AND THAT THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR THE CONVECTION AS WELL AS PROVIDING UPPER AIR
SUPPORT...THINKING IS THAT SOME STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCING
AS MUCH AS 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR.  HIGHEST RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE
SOUTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE DEPTH IS
GREATEST.

SINCE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WAS ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES
PER 3 HOURS IN MO...ESPECIALLY IN THE HILLY TERRAIN...AND ON THE
ORDER OF 2 INCHES PER 3 HOURS IN NORTHERN AR...FEEL THAT THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   37999205 37889125 37489084 37019081 36509122 
            35989234 35559351 35249444 35249497 35529514 
            36209405 37179331 37729342