MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0342
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
452 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 110851Z - 111251Z
 
SUMMARY...PERSISTENT REDEVELOPMENT IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
BACKBUILDING AND REPEATING OF HIGHLY EFFICIENT CONVECTION WITH
1.5"+/HR RATES.

DISCUSSION...BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MAXIMIZED SHORTWAVE RIDGING/WEAK ANTICYCLONE OVER
NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA PER WV SATELLITE LOOP.  A NEW 60KT SPEED MAX IS
ENTERING SONORA ALLOWING FOR SOME INCREASED FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC PER CIRA LAYERED TPW
LOOPS...ALLOWING FOR DUAL MOISTURE STREAM TOWARD THE AREA THOUGH
MAXIMIZED FURTHER FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AT THE
NOSE OF 35+ KT LOW LEVEL JET. AS SUCH TPW ANALYSIS FROM THE RAP
INDICATE AN AXIS OF 1.5-1.75" VALUES FROM EL PASO TO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.  CELLS WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT WITH RATES OF 1.5"/HR
LIKELY WITH THESE SATURATED PROFILES. 

WITH INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS POCKETS OF REINVIGORATED DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE MOISTURE AXIS FROM THE RIO GRANDE INTO S ROOSEVELT COUNTY NM.
CELLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO HAVE BEEN SCATTERED BUT GIVEN
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...GROUND CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING EVEN UNDER MODERATE RATES. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE TOPS HAVE REACHED -70C.  UPSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT PER RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MUCAPES AVAILABLE IN EXCESS
OF 2000 J/KG...INCREASING RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.  IN
ADDITION...PROPAGATION VECTORS ARE NEAR ZERO AND WITH UPSTREAM
ENERGY ALOFT/BACKBUILDING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WITH
CONFLUENT FLOW THROUGH A DEEP PORTION OF THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER...TRAINING ACROSS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO IS POSSIBLE
LEADING TO A CORRIDOR OF INCREASED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 3-4" AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER IF UPSTREAM ENERGY CONTINUES SUPPORTED
BACKBUILDING.  

HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE DONE VERY POORLY THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS QUICKLY DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THIS ALONG WITH LIKELIHOOD OF REDUCED UPSTREAM DATA BEING
INGESTED...DO NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THEIR TRENDS IN THE NEAR
FUTURE...NOR THE EVENT OVERALL. PLEASE REFER TO CURRENT AND FUTURE
SPENES FOR ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS.      

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34670296 33710222 31850382 30850513 31190577 
            31750640 32160673 33690488