MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0348
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
759 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN MI...NORTHERN/CENTRAL IN...NORTHEAST IL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 131158Z - 131600Z
 
SUMMARY...THERE IS A SHORT TERM RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA DUE TO VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. 

DISCUSSION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING OVER
WESTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA/ILLINOIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A COMPLEX DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN AN AREA WHERE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY HIGH.  HOWEVER THE COMPLEX WILL BE
HEADING TOWARDS AN AREA OF LOWER GUIDANCE BY LATE MORNING AND
ACROSS HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS.  THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THIS AREA WAS
QUITE MOIST WITH PW VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.  AS A
RESULT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING.

SATELLITE BASED SOUNDER IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A VERY RAPID DROP OFF
IN CAPE/LIFT INDEX VALUES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MI/IN SO WILL
NOT SPREAD THE RISK TOO FAR EASTWARD.  BUT HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
SPREAD OUT OF THE AREA DEFINED IN MPD 347.  THE WRF/ARW AND
WRF/NMMB STILL WERE DOING A BETTER JOB IN DEPICTING THIS EASTWARD
TRANSLATION THAN RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR. 


BANN

ATTN...WFO...APX...DVN...GRR...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   44398625 43688547 42578537 40918513 39948613 
            40838744 40698853 41138931 41958966 42248781 
            43758664