MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0356
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MISSOURI INTO SRN/CNTRL IOWA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 160859Z - 161300Z
 
SUMMARY...A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS FROM NRN MISSOURI INTO IOWA BEFORE GRADUAL
DIMINISHING NEAR 12Z. AN ADDITIONAL 3-4 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...LIKELY ALONG THE CNTRL IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER.

DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 0815Z SHOWED A HEALTHY MCS
CENTERED OVER IOWA WITH TWO DISTINCT LOCATIONS OF STRONG UPDRAFTS
INDICATED BY CLOUD TOPS NEAR -75C OVER SWRN IOWA AND S-CNTRL IOWA.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BOWING SEGMENT IN MONTGOMERY AND PAGE
COUNTIES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWRN IOWA COLDER CLOUD
TOPS...MOVING ENE AROUND 30 KTS. REMAINING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PERIODS OF
TRAINING. IMPRESSIVE OBSERVED RAINFALL IN NWRN MISSOURI THIS
MORNING WITH 8 INCHES IN LESS THAN 4 HOURS...AS REFERENCED IN
RECENT SPENES MESSAGE FROM 0818Z...ALONG WITH SLOWLY VEERING 850
MB FLOW ON KDMX VAD WIND PLOT. 

AS THE CURRENT 850-700 MB CIRCULATION JUST WEST OF THE
NEBRASKA/IOWA BORDER CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER ACROSS IOWA.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST 850-700 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
INTO CNTRL AND ERN IOWA BY 15Z...PER RECENT RAP MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOULD DISPLACE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX AWAY FROM SUFFICIENT LINGERING INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG THE
IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT TO LINGER ACROSS S-CNTRL IOWA THROUGH 15Z WHERE SWLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERRUNNING OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING SE TO NW ACROSS MISSOURI...BUT A CONSENSUS OF THE HI-RES
MODELS END THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT BY 13Z.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   42399237 42319130 41629105 40859161 40339241 
            40069447 40199533 40659603 41579634 41909606 
            42099548 42269432