MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0364
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
501 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-ERN KANSAS TOWARD THE NEBRASKA/MISSOURI
BORDER 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 190901Z - 191301Z
 
SUMMARY...A SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS EVOLVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND NERN KANSAS IN VICINITY OF A STATIONARY
FRONT AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE MCS. PERIODS OF REPEAT CONVECTION MAY
LEAD TO A QUICK 3-4 INCHES.

DISCUSSION...0830Z OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A LARGELY PROGRESSIVE MCS
TRACKING EWD THROUGH KANSAS ALONG I-70 WITH A NRN END BOOK END
VORTEX LOCATED IN ROOKS COUNTY. 30 KT WSWLY FLOW AT 850 MB WAS
SEEN ON AREA VWPS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IN THE VICINITY OF A
STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM NWRN MISSOURI INTO NERN AND W-CNTRL
KANSAS. NOCTURNAL WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING
NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT WITHIN AN AXIS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES PER RECENT 07Z GPS OBSERVATION ALONG
I-70 BETWEEN MANHATTAN AND TOPEKA. THESE TWO AREAS ARE IN THE
PROCESS OF MERGING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 2000-3000
MUCAPE PER RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS.

WHILE RECENT HI-RES MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THIS RAPIDLY
EVOLVING SITUATION...HINTS IN SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY BY THE RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HRRR_EXPERIMENTAL SUGGEST 3-4 HOURS OF
REPEATING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE THREAT AREA. GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
QUICK 3-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY 13Z IN AN AREA THAT SHOWS FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES OF 2-3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40519612 40509457 40229361 39689351 39249399 
            38879520 38319676 38199833 38899933 39959890 
            40389774