MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0367
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
526 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 192125Z - 200325Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING TRAINING CONVECTION MAY CAUSE FLASH-FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
EASTWARD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL COLORADO INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
SHOWS AN EAST-WEST AXIS OF PWS GREATER THAN 1.5-INCHES EXTENDING
FROM THE MID MS VALLEY BACK INTO FAR EASTERN CO.  LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF A LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CO IS EXPECTED TO HELP SUPPORT THESE PWS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WHILE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ENHANCES THE LARGE SCALE LIFT.  THE 19Z HRRR..12Z HRW-ARW/NMM AND
THE NSSL WRF ALL GENERALLY SHOW SLOW MOVING, TRAINING CONVECTION
CONVERGING OVER EAST-CENTRAL CO INTO WESTERN KS AROUND 23-00Z. 
THE HI-RES CONSENSUS IS FOR LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2+ INCHES
CENTERING ALONG THE EAST-WEST AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  THE LATEST 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE 1.5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...SUGGESTING
FLASH-FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39440271 39390172 39020068 38820011 38590029 
            38440069 38290122 38260175 38330213 38490282 
            38500354 38990362