MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0369
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
747 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN CA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 192346Z - 200546Z
 
SUMMARY...LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...PROLONGING THE THREAT FOR FLASH-FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...INFLUENCED BY ANAMOUSLY HIGH PWS AND THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH DOLORES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWED PWS AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES EXTENDING ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA AND NORTH ALONG THE COAST INTO CENTRAL CA. 
CURRENTLY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING TO THE NORTH IS HELPING TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA COAST INTO THE
MOUTAINS.  WHILE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS IT LIFTS FURTHER NORTH
ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING.  OVERALL THE HI-RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO PERFORM POORLY WITH RESPECT TO THE QPF...HOWEVER THE
21Z HRRR DOES SHOW LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS PERSISTING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL RANGES INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...MTR...PSR...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...

LAT...LON   36801837 36091808 35581808 35101775 34901671 
            34401622 34171578 33821539 33561551 33471589 
            32681563 32421588 32391624 32891685 33951743 
            34191788 34551916 34892007 35792072 36122073 
            35762020 35281945 35491887 36371878