MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0370
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
157 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KANSAS INTO CNTRL/SRN MISSOURI
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 200556Z - 201156Z
SUMMARY...CONVECTION NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING MCS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
KANSAS WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE LOWEST. LOCALIZED
TRAINING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH 3 HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 3-5
INCHES POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...WELL DEFINED CONVERGENCE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT IN
THE PRESENCE OF A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN REMAINING CAPE ACROSS ERN
KANSAS INTO WRN MISSOURI HAS ALLOWED A LINE OF CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FARTHER WEST...ENHANCED SLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN MCV IN N-CNTRL
KANSAS...TIED TO A LARGELY FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS...HAS ALLOW
AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NRN KANSAS AS OF 0530Z. MOISTURE FROM
BLENDED TWP IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSES SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF ROUGHLY 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES FROM KANSAS INTO WRN
MISSOURI...SUPPORTING DUAL POL ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2
IN/HR WITHIN THE HEAVIER RAIN CORES.
AS THE MCV IN NRN KANSAS CONTINUES TOWARD THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS...LOW LEVEL OVERRUNNING OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO FOCUS RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR MOSTLY NORTH OF I-70
IN NERN KANSAS AND NWRN MISSOURI. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW OF
20-30 KTS FROM THE WEST WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN THE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAX NEARER TO THE STATIONARY FRONT CROSSING
THROUGH S-CNTRL MISSOURI. IT IS HERE THAT ONGOING CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND AND PERHAPS LINK UP WITH ACTIVITY IN NRN KANSAS
BY 09Z. GIVEN PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM THE WEST...SOME
TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
RECENT HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CATCH ON TO ACTIVITY IN
KANSAS...BUT THEY SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION DESCRIBED ABOVE THROUGH
12Z WITH CONTINUED RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR...AND POSSIBLE 3-5
INCH AMOUNTS IN 3 HOURS.
OTTO
ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...
LAT...LON 40409705 40229535 39469347 38429206 37879170
37479193 37349322 37499479 38309652 38819854
39609903 40189872
Last Updated: 157 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015