MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0372
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
805 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN OK/FAR SOUTHEASTERN KS/SOUTHERN
MO/NORTHERN AR... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 210005Z - 210405Z
 
SUMMARY...RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO BACKBUILD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN MO. GIVEN THE MEAN
CLOUD-BEARING FLOW NEARLY ALIGNS WITH THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW...THE
MINIMIZED CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST TRAINING IS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM SOUTHERN MO BACK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KS/NORTHEASTERN OK. THE
WARM/MOIST SECTOR FEATURES A PRONOUNCED PLUME OF TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WITH RECENT GPS DATA SUGGESTING 2.00 TO 2.25 INCH PWATS
ANCHORING THIS REGION. VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ERUPTING ALONG THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THE FRONTAL ZONE
WITH SOME LOCALIZED CLOUD TOPS IN THE -70C TO -75 C RANGE. THE 23Z
RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO FUEL ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY IN REGIONS
WHICH REMAIN CLOUD-FREE AT THIS TIME.

THUS FAR...THE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES PER DUAL-POL DATA SUGGEST
AMOUNTS IN THE 1.00 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE. GIVEN BACKBUILDING HAS
ALREADY BEEN NOTED IN RECENT IMAGERY...SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE REGION
ENCASED IN MAGENTA ON THE GRAPHIC WHERE CORFIDI VECTORS ARE NEAR
ZERO.

WHILE SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT THE ONGOING
CONVECTION REASONABLY WELL...THEY ALL APPEAR TO SHOW A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. NOT SURE THIS IS THE CASE...AT LEAST
INITIALLY AS BACKBUILDING IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN
MO. THUS...BELIEVE THE THREAT AT LEAST IS PRESENT FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE LINE OF CONVECTION SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST IN TIME.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   38009242 37739073 36629024 35999072 35949171 
            35969312 35939406 35859544 36759594 37479543 
            37769424