MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0373
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
947 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM/TX AND OK PANHANDLES/WESTERN OK... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 210146Z - 210646Z
 
SUMMARY...PERSISTENT WEST-EAST ORIENTED CONVECTION ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
MEANWHILE...DEEP CONVECTION WHICH EARLIER FORMED OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN VERY HEALTHY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM SPREADING A RISK FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RADAR IMAGERY
HAS SHOWN MULTIPLE WEST-EAST AXES OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
THE TX PANHANDLE. THE GENERAL THEME HAS BEEN FOR THE CELLS TO DUMP
THEIR CORES IN THE HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT AND PUT OUT MULTIPLE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THESE BOUNDARIES HAVE THEN PROVIDED ADDITIONAL
FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN REGIONS WHICH HAVE NOT CONVECTED
PREVIOUSLY. THE 00Z RAOB FROM AMARILLO SUGGESTS THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO EXHAUST WITH OVER 4000
J/KG IN THE SOUNDING WITH NO CAPPING. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS IN
NEARBY LOCATIONS SHOW SIMILAR HIGH-END INSTABILITY PROFILES.

A BLENDED-TPW LOOP SUGGESTS THE TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS HAS MOISTENED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH PWATS IN THE
1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE AS OF 00Z. THIS COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...LARGE AMOUNTS OF BUOYANCY...AND MULTIPLE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES SHOW A CONTINUED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FFG VALUES ARE GENERALLY QUITE HIGH EXCEPT FOR
LOCATIONS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE MPD. OF COURSE THESE
NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY COME DOWN IN RECENT HOURS GIVEN EARLIER HEAVY
RAINFALL.

IT APPEARS THE 00Z HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE WITH THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY. THIS SOLUTION SUGGESTS HOURLY RATES IN THE 1.00 TO 1.50
INCH RANGE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER POCKETS WHERE CONVECTION BECOMES
MORE FOCUSED IN NATURE. WILL LET THE NIGHT SHIFT RE-ASSESS THE
SITUATION ONCE THIS EXPIRES.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36690152 36649935 36339832 35209812 34569883 
            34050136 33450304 33940410 35720392 36530310