MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0378
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
445 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 232045Z - 240200Z
 
SUMMARY...ROBUST HIGHLY EFFICIENT CELLS TO LINGER NEAR COASTLINE
FOR NEXT FEW HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT.

DISCUSSION...WELL DESCRIBED HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS
SE NORTH CAROLINA PER RECENT SPENES AND MPD 377.  VERY STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF DEFINED SURFACE LOW NEAR CTZ
AND EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
CONTINUED 2-2.5"/HR RATES.  WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS SLIGHTLY
INCREASED LOW LEVEL FLOW ONSHORE ADVECTS HIGH INSTABILITIES FROM
3000-3500 J/KG PER RAP ANALYSIS AS WELL AS FOCUSING STRONG MST
CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOWS AND REINFORCED SEA BREEZE...INTO HORRY
COUNTY SC.  ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF 2-4" ARE POSSIBLE KEEPING FLASH
FLOOD THREAT CONTINUING.  

WV LOOP SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING INTO CENTRAL NC ATTM WITHIN
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT JET ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.  PVA FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE
LOW...INCREASING INFLOW AND SLOWING PROPAGATION VECTORS.  STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALSO LEADS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NC THAT MAY
TRAIN/REPEAT INTO AREAS CURRENTLY AFFECTED COMPOUNDING ANY
FLOODING SITUATIONS.  THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH THOSE CELLS MAY BE
A DRIER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT EXISTS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...THOUGH SBCAPES HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED TO 2000 J/KG WITH
SURFACE TDS STILL IN THE 70S AHEAD OF NEW DEVELOPMENT.    

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   34867886 34857748 34457648 33987754 33387884 
            33587953 34397927