MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0380
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
836 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...NORTHERN KANSAS...NORTHWEST
MISSOURI...SOUTHWEST IOWA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 250035Z - 250635Z
 
SUMMARY...GOOD INSTABILITIES MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT
STRONG CONVECTION CAPABLE OF EFFICIENT RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF
2"/HR. 

DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR OMA TOWARD HJH TO THE
SURFACE LOW NEAR HLC KS...BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE PER WV LOOP.  EXTREME INSTABILITIES TO 6500 J/KG SBCAPES PER
23Z RAP GIVEN TEMPS IN THE HIGH 90S/LOW 100S WITH TDS IN THE HIGH
70S/LOW 80S HAVE BEEN TAPPED FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTION ALONG THE
COLD FRONT.  DUE TO STRONG SURFACE AND DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT RECENTLY REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION THAT ROLLED ACROSS CENTRAL NEB...CELLS HAVE EXPANDED IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  CELLS SHOULD BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT WITH
RATES IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR...WITH SOME OF THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
DEEPER INTO THE RIDGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...CELL MOTIONS
ARE REDUCED FOR VERY SLOW TO STATIONARY IN THE NEAR TERM TO ALLOW
FOR COMPOUNDED TOTALS LIKELY TO EXCEED THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
THAT IS GENERALLY BELOW 2"/1HR.  FURTHER EAST OVER SOUTHEAST
NEB/SOUTHWEST IA...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING FOR CELLS TO
PROGRESS A BIT QUICKER AS WELL AS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...IN LINE
WITH THE 12Z NSSL-WRF WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE HANDLED THE LOCATION
OF THE CONVECTION BEST OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE. 

LATER THIS EVENING...FORECAST INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW
FROM THE 15KTS CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO 25-30 KTS BY 05Z SHOULD
SUPPORT INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW
FROM ONGOING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT ACROSS NW MO...LIKELY TOWARD STJ AND POSSIBLE INTO
THE NORTHERN KC SUBURBS.     

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...DDC...DMX...EAX...GID...GLD...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   41499430 39799385 39409416 39459494 39529584 
            39469636 39359731 39129922 39569968 39999947 
            40349747 41469558