MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0382...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
537 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015
 
CORRECTED FOR RUN OF THE ARW THAT IS PREFERABLE

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS, SOUTHEAST NE, NORTHWEST MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 252128Z - 260328Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE DEVELOPING AS CIN
ACROSS THE AREA ERODES.  HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5" COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...PER SAB/NESDIS BRIEFINGS, THE BASE OF A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE IMPULSE ALONG AN
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS COUPLED WITH DECREASING CIN HAVE LED TO
NEW SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KS.  INITIAL
STORMS ARE MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE EAST AT 15-20 KTS PER RADAR
IMAGERY.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS RATHER WEAK PER VAD WIND PROFILES
-- 15-20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.  HOWEVER, MLCAPES ARE
BETWEEN 1500-4500 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KS AND NEAR THE KS/MO
BORDER PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
CLOSE TO 2" WERE REPORTED VIA GPS NEAR TOPEKA KS, WHICH SUPPORTS
HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5".

THE EXPECTATION IS FOR CONVECTION TO FORM HAPHAZARDLY AT THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CAPE GRADIENT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS, AND THEN BEGIN TO TRAIN.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME
INDICATION OF BACKBUILDING TO THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. 
DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WITH HEIGHT ALONG WITH THE HIGH MLCAPES
SHOULD CONTINUE FORWARD PROPAGATION THOUGH SHIFT COURSE TO THE
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 15-20 KTS PER FORWARD PROPAGATING
CONVECTIVE VECTORS.  TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, RAP FORECASTS
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH INCREASING CIN
SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE ELEVATED AND
POTENTIALLY THREATEN LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE,
WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT.  AN INCREASE IN THE 850
HPA INFLOW SHOULD HELP ORGANIZE ACTIVITY, CONTINUE CELL
BACKBUILDING, AND PERHAPS EXPAND ITS COVERAGE PAST 00Z.  THE 12Z
ARW AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SEEM TO HAVE THIS ACTIVITY HANDLED THE
BEST, AND INDICATE LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2-3" RANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.  RECENT RAINFALL HAVE SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THIS
AREA.  FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40599420 40349304 39059326 38939446 38939614 
            38929782 39739862 40169844 40499714 40589564