MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0384
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1124 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHESTERN KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 260323Z - 260730Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 07Z. 

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN A
REGION NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WARM AXIS AND THE MOISTURE
AXIS AT THE SFC/850 MB WITH THETAE VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 355 K
AND 360 K. THE OBSERVED SOUNDING AT DDC SHOWED CAPE IN EXCESS OF
3000 J PER KG AND RATHER WEAK FLOW UP TO ROUGHLY 800 MB...ALTHOUGH
AREA VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWED H85 FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 25
KTS AS OF 03Z.  

THE EXPECTATION IS FOR CONVECTION TO FORM HAPHAZARDLY ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHED NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BECOME ORGANIZED THROUGH 05Z OR
06Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.  LOCAL RAINFALL RATES ON
THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE
PW VALUES WHICH ARE ALREADY IN PLACE PLUS CONTINUED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA.  SOME SPOTS MAY RECEIVE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FORMS OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHWEST KS.

THE 12Z ARW AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SEEM TO HAVE THIS ACTIVITY
HANDLED THE BEST, AND INDICATE LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2-3" RANGE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  

BANN

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38999734 37759752 37149868 37079958 37050108 
            37100196 37890156 38779896