MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0385
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1225 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 260424Z - 260900Z
 
SUMMARY...ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MO WILL MOVE EAST
TOWARDS THE POOL OF DEEP MOISTURE ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MO.  THIS WAS THE AREA WHERE CAPES WERE OVER 3000 J PER KG AND
WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES
ACCORDING TO 00Z RAOB FROM TOP AND SHOWN BY BLENDED TPW SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  AREA 88D VAD WIND PROFILERS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN
H85 FLOW WHICH WILL AID MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA OF
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.  

RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF CELLS...WITH SOME LOCALIZED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.  RECENT RAINFALL HAS SATURATED
THE SOIL IN THIS AREA...WHICH LEADS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING.  

THE 12Z RUN OF THE ARW AND SEVERAL OF THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS
EVENING HAVE HAD A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION AND WAS GIVEN MORE WEIGHT THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS OR THE
NMMB.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   40409224 39329130 38599161 38459170 38069248 
            38399389 38929490 39419499 39689429