MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0397
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
219 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 300619Z - 301130Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AS CONVECTION PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO HAS
MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY
SHOWING THAT CAPE VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2000 J PER KG UPSTREAM FROM
THE CONVECTION...AND THAT WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DRAW THAT INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA OF CONVECTION. 
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOWED THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WAS POISED OVER IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM FROM THE
CONVECTION WITH WITH MODEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALSO IN PLACE.  

THUS THE EXPECTATION IS THAT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EVEN
THOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED TO WARM AS OF 0545Z
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONSIDERING THAT THE RATIO OF  3 HOURLY QPE TO
3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WAS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1 AS SHOWN BY
GUIDANCE ON FLASH...THINK THAT CONTINUED RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING BEFORE RAINFALL RATES WANE.  

THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH INITIALIZING
THE CONVECTION AND THEY HAVE BEEN KILLING THE CONVECTION TOO
QUICKLY.  

BANN

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35810420 35010340 33710343 33400458 34600582 
            35670579