MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0398
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
702 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 301055Z - 301455Z
 
SUMMARY...VERY HEAVY AND SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MAY RESULT IN SOME
FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SLOW-MOVING
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN KS ALONG WITH SEVERAL OVERSHOOTING TOPS.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING AND THE EXPERIMENTAL LIGHTNING
DENSITY PRODUCT SHOWS A NOTABLE UPTICK IN STRIKE ACTIVITY OVER THE
LAST COUPLE HOURS WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS/FORCING
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE ACTIVITY IS FOCUSING WELL NORTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE BUT WITHIN
AN AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. FORCING APPEARS TO BE QUITE WEAK
OVER THE REGION IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70 TO 90 KT 250
MB JET MOVING ACROSS NE/IA THIS MORNING WHICH APPEARS TO BE
PROVING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE.

THE LATEST HIRES MODELS INCLUDING THE 00Z ARW/00Z NMMB AND 00Z
NSSL-WRF ALL DID REASONABLY GOOD JOB IN FORECASTING THE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...BUT WITH SOME RELATIVELY MINOR ERRORS WITH SPATIAL
DISTRIBUTION. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO
MAINTAIN ITSELF AND DROP GRADUALLY EAST-SOUTHEAST. SOME ADDITION
EXPANSION OF THE CONVECTION DOWN INTO NORTHERN OK APPEARS LIKELY.

MOISTURE IS VERY DEEP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH GOES-SOUNDER AND
GPS PWATS RUNNING CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. VERY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES/HR ARE EXPECTED AND WITH VERY WEAK STORM
MOTION...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY TOTALS ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE
MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AT LEAST LOCALLY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   38159802 38089671 37599615 37039625 36729660 
            36519757 36449835 36459943 36700016 37039997 
            37729909