MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0401
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1109 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS PANHANDLE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 010308Z - 010908Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION LIKELY ROOTED IN THE 800 TO 650 MB LAYER
CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN RESPONSE TO LOCALIZED MAXIMA IN MOISTURE
FLUX CONVERGENCE AIDED BY THE DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN 2
MCVS...ONE ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER AND ANOTHER OVER W. CENTRAL OK. 
THE INFLOW LAYER APPEARS ASSOCIATED WITH LAYER CAPES OF 500 TO
1200 J/KG WITH MEAN CELL MOTIONS TOWARD THE EAST AT 10 KNOTS. 
GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE LEVELS...RAIN RATES OF 1.5 TO PERHAPS NEAR 2
INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY IN REGIONS OF DEEP PERSISTENT
CONVECTION.

THROUGH 09Z...EXTRAPOLATION OF THESE ENVIRONMENTAL AND KINEMATIC
CONDITIONS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND BETWEEN THE
MCVS...WITH VERY SLOW CELL MOTIONS AND DEEP MOISTURE SUSTAINING
THESE RAIN RATES OVERNIGHT.  CURRENT HI-RES GUIDANCE LAGS THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY AND THUS WAS NOT RELIED UPON FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE LOCATION OF THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH SUGGESTS A GENERAL EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST MOTION FOR MOST CELLS OVERNIGHT...WHILE INFLOW FROM THE
WEST FAVORS PROPAGATION AND REPEATED CELL DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGES OF CURRENT ACTIVITY.  FFG VALUES ARE LOWEST ALONG
THE NM/W. TX BORDER BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER EAST...WITH THE
MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT AND ACCOMPANYING RAIN RATES EXPECTED TO BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO EXCEED GUIDANCE VALUES AT SOME POINT.

JAMES 

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36010096 35709923 34609938 33800054 33590165 
            33720289 34380364 35230358 35800270