MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0402
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
554 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN FLORIDA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 010953Z - 011553Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MORNING.

DISCUSSION...A COASTAL BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
CONTINUES TO DRIFT ASHORE SOUTH OF I-10 AND WEST OF I-75 EXTENDING
FROM TALLAHASSEE TO LAKE CITY AND GAINESVILLE...WITH EXPANDING AND
INCREASINGLY DEEP CONVECTION FORMING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.  RAP AND HRRR ANALYSES SHOW A 850 TO 700 MB TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF THAT SHOULD DRIFT ASHORE THROUGH THE
MORNING...COINCIDING WITH A FEW HOURS OF LIMITED INSOLATION TO
INCREASE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS
AND THEREFORE EVEN HIGHER RAINFALL RATES.

THE MAJORITY OF HI-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS SIGNAL FORMING ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN FLORIDA BETWEEN 12-18Z...ALTHOUGH WITH VARIOUS
AMOUNTS AND PRECISE LOCATIONS.  MOST OF THE RAIN THAT FALLS
THROUGH 12-13Z WILL MOISTEN THE GROUND AND ALLOW HEAVIER RAIN THAT
MAY DEVELOP LATER TO CONTRIBUTE TO POSSIBLE FLOODING.

JAMES  

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   30918408 30878262 29908176 28648193 27958280 
            28218334 28948321 29788387 29638473 30048515 
            30578489