MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0409
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
537 PM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST AZ...SOUTHEAST UT...WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CO...NM 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 022135Z - 030230Z
 
SUMMARY...INTENSE AND RATHER SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MAINTAIN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION INCLUDING A FEW MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE IMPACTING MUCH OF FAR NORTHEAST
AZ/SOUTHEAST UT AND A LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CO AND NM AT
THIS TIME. SOME OF STRONGEST CONVECTIVE CORES APPEAR TO BE MOVING
INTO SAN JUAN COUNTY OF SOUTHEAST UT...LAS ANIM COUNTY OF SOUTHERN
CO...AND SOCCORO/VALENCIA/MORA/COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES INVOLVING
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM. THIS IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF RADAR
AND IR SATELLITE IMAGES WHERE COOLING TOPS ARE ALSO NOTED.

MOISTURE OVER THE REGION IS QUITE ANOMALOUS...WITH PWATS RUNNING
LOCALLY 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST AZ/SOUTHEAST UT AND SOUTHWEST CO. THE DEEP MOISTURE
PROFILES COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHICS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND LOCALLY ORGANIZE INTO
STRONGER CLUSTERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE WILL FAVOR INTENSE RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD REACH UP TO
2 INCHES/HR. THESE RAINS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS WILL FOSTER RAPID RUNOFF INTO AREA WASHES.

HIRES MODEL OUTPUTS GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE UNDERDONE GIVEN THE
MOISTURE PROFILES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT TOTALS OF LOCALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES WHERE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES INTERACT WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...FGZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   39730620 39660526 38820402 37670328 37110303 
            36310321 35610389 35000503 34280591 34000658 
            33830743 34360799 35590801 36060841 36440890 
            36910965 37451000 38220985 39030884 39540710