MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0410
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1020 PM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST NM, SOUTHEAST UT, & SOUTHWEST CO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 030219Z - 030519Z
 
SUMMARY...INFLOW AND INSTABILITY COULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS, PROLONGING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

DISCUSSION...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP COOLING
ACROSS NORTHWEST NM AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE NEAR THE UT/AZ
BORDER.  MLCAPES REMAIN IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG NEIGHBORHOOD AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 1.25" PER GPS INFORMATION.
INFLOW AT 700 HPA IS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE, ABOVE THE MEAN 850-400
HPA WIND, WHICH SEEMS TO BE ORGANIZING CONVECTION ABOVE THE NORMAL
PULSE MODE.

THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO KEEP GOING
FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.  THE 12Z NMMB, 12Z ARW, 18Z CANADIAN
REGIONAL, AND 18Z NAM CONEST ADVERTISE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" AMOUNTS
LOCALLY WITHIN THIS RUGGED REGION.  HOURLY RAIN RATES OF 1" ARE
POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.  FLASH FLOODING SHOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE INFLOW REDIRECTS AWAY FROM THIS AREA
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST NM AND THE REMAINING INSTABILITY ERODES.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   39220822 38920706 38360628 37000529 35490548 
            34950694 34920855 35790928 37840967 38920921