MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0411
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1051 PM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE AND VICINITY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 030249Z - 030749Z
 
SUMMARY...COOLING CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION
ARE OVERSPREADING THE REGION.  FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER
SATURATED SOILS.

DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM RECENT CONVECTION HAS SET UP
SHOP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE, WESTERN OK, AND EAST-CENTRAL NM.  AN
EXPANSION OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN SEEN ACROSS THE REGION ELEVATED
OVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS, FUELED BY
MUCAPES IN THE 2000 J/KG RANGE AND INCREASING CIN.  INFLOW AT 850
HPA IS CLOSE TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH, ABOVE THE MEAN 850-400
HPA WIND.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 1.75-2" RANGE PER
RECENT GPS INFORMATION.  THUNDERSTORM MOTION IS CURRENTLY TO THE
EAST AT 10-15 KTS.

THE 12Z SPCWRF, 00Z RAP, 18Z & 00Z NAM CONEST, AND 01Z HRRR HAVE A
SIGNAL FOR THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SHOWING LOCAL AMOUNTS IN
THE 2-4" RANGE.  LOW-LEVEL INFLOW BUMPS UP SLIGHTLY MORE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS PER RAP GUIDANCE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO GREATER
ORGANIZATION.  THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUPPORTS HOURLY RAIN RATES
UP TO 2" AN HOUR.  CELL MOTION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS
IS ANTICIPATED AS THE COLD POOL ATTEMPTS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF
ACROSS THE REGION.  THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END FROM
WEST TO EAST WITHIN THIS REGION.  CELL TRAINING AND CELL MERGERS
ARE CONSIDERED THE MAIN FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  WHILE THE 18Z SSEO
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION COULD LIVE ON
FOR ANOTHER SIX HOURS, THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS TELLS ANOTHER STORY, IMPLYING FOUR MORE HOURS OF
LIFE.  HOWEVER, AT 00Z IT APPEARED THAT THE RAP GUIDANCE HAS
UNDERESTIMATED THE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE IN THE REGION PER THE
AMARILLO TX SOUNDING, WHICH COULD MEAN THAT THE SPC MESOANALYSIS
IS UNDERSELLING THE POTENTIAL HERE.  SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND USED
A FIVE HOUR WINDOW FOR THIS MPD.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36320079 36179929 34799952 33860131 33680302 
            34240439 34850439 35330362 36140186 36170168