MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0413
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
719 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 031115Z - 031615Z
 
SUMMARY...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST THIS
MORNING
OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.  FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION PERSISTS OVER
NORTHERN FL  AROUND A SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF CROSS CITY, FL. 
CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE LOW AND NEAR A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
KEYS HAS CREATED A BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAXIMA IN
BETWEEN TO PRODUCE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THAT THEN MOVE ONSHORE INTO WEST CENTRAL FL. 

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.25-2.5" EXIST ACROSS THE REGION PER
GPS INFORMATION AND REFLECTED IN THE RAP ANALYSIS.  INFLOW AT 850
HPA IS 20-25 KTS PER RECENT RAP FORECASTS AND VAD WIND PROFILES
FROM TAMPA BAY/RUSKIN FL.  MUCAPES OF 1000-3000 J/KG LIE NEAR AND
OFFSHORE THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST OF FL PER CURRENT SPC
MESOANALYSES.

THE MODELS FORECAST THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN SPREAD OUT TO OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON LIKE YESTERDAY.

THE 06Z SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES, WHICH SHOW A 50% CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING THE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THROUGH
14Z...DECREASING AFTERWARD. HOURLY RAIN RATES OF UP TO 2" ARE
POSSIBLE.

THE MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS AN ADDITIONAL 2-4" RAINFALL THIS
MORNING.  
FLOODING COULD BE SPOTTY GIVEN 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OF 3
INCHES, SO THIS MPD ASSIGNED THE FLASH FLOOD LIKELIHOOD AS
POSSIBLE.

PETERSEN

ATTN...WFO...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   28608223 27888190 27138178 26678203 26588270 
            26988277 27448290 28028298 28408292