MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0414
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
723 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAS NM...FAR SOUTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST
KS...NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE...OK PANHANDLE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 032320Z - 040320Z
 
SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SLOW CELL MOTION WILL FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST GOES-RGB AIRMASS IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST NORTHERN UT AND INTO
WESTERN CO. THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE BEGINNING TO EJECT OUT INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS AND IS INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH A NOSE OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH PWATS NOTED
FROM SOUTHWEST KS SOUTH DOWN INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...AND MLCAPE
VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. 

SOME SLOW-MOVING CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER
EASTERN CO AND NORTHEAST NM...BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO GET A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGER SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE INCREASES WHILE INTERACTING WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.

THE HIRES MODELS LED BY THE 12Z ARW/12Z NMMB AND 12Z NSSL-WRF
SUPPORT SOME 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS...WITH THE 21Z HRRR LOCALLY EVEN
WETTER. HOWEVER...THE MODELS PRIMARILY FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
THREAT OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW
LEVEL INFLOW IN THE REGION...ALBEIT MODEST...IT APPEARS REASONABLE
THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD TEND TO BE OVER
THESE AREAS. SLOW CELL MOTION AND INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO
2 INCHES/HR WILL DRIVE AT LEAST A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT IT
APPEARS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   38130099 38110027 37579957 36459956 35670013 
            35300086 35140153 35310259 36050343 36920335 
            37380226